Conflict in the Three Areas

The Three Areas, consisting of Abyei, South Kordofan, and Blue Nile, located along Sudan's volatile North-South border, bore the brunt of decades of armed conflict that ended in January 2005 with the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). During the CPA period the terms of the peace agreement covering the areas were only partially implemented. Following the secession of South Sudan and the end of the CPA period, each of the Three Areas has devolved into open conflict.

In Abyei, Sudan's ruling National Congress Party (NCP) steadfastly blocked CPA implementation in Abyei, first by refusing to accept the CPA-mandated directive to demarcate the territory, then by rejecting the findings of the 2009 boundary ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague. A long-standing political impasse led to both sides building up their forces in and around the territory until SAF took advantage of an altercation with the SPLA to mount a full-scale aerial and ground invasion of Abyei. A security agreement concluded between the SPLM and the Government of Sudan in June called for the withdrawal of SAF and the deployment of a brigade of Ethiopian peacekeepers. The force, authorized under a Chapter VII mandate from the UN Security Council, has begun to deploy. But as of early September SAF and Missiriya militias continue to occupy Abyei. The CPA-mandated Abyei referendum, to decide whether to join South Sudan or remain in the North, is unlikely to come to pass. Click here for a summary of this situation in Abyei and here for a more detailed report.

The situation is equally serious in South Kordofan and Blue Nile states. Neither state is to have a referendum. Instead, the CPA Protocol on the Resolution of the Conflict in Southern Kordofan/Nuba Mountains and Blue Nile States provides only for ill-defined 'Popular Consultations' to identify 'shortcomings' in the CPA and attempt to negotiate amendments with Khartoum.

After a highly dubious and disputed gubernatorial election that returned International Criminal Court-indicted NCP candidate Ahmed Haroun, tensions mounted. On 23 May, SAF gave the SPLA a deadline of 1 June to withdraw all their forces from Blue Nile and South Kordofan. Violence erupted in South Kordofan on 5 June, pitting SAF, paramilitary, and special forces against the SPLM-Northern Sector (SPLM-North) and its supporters among the population, most notably the Nuba. The conflict has involved the widespread bombing of civilians by SAF and accusations of human rights violations. More than 70,000 people have been forcibly displaced as a result of fighting. A political and security framework agreement on 28 June has not stopped the conflict from escalating. The popular consultation is now unlikely to occur. For a full account of the South Kordofan conflict as of 15 September, click here.

After a 12-month delay, in January 2011 the popular consultation took place in Blue Nile amid strong calls for the area to be given autonomy. The results have not been fully released. On 1 September 2011, SAF forces clashed with SPLA elements of the Joint Integrated Units and supporters of SPLM-North. The following day Sudan president Bashir called a state of emergency in Blue Nile, sacked Governor Malik Agar (SPLM-North), and shut down the headquarters of SPLM-North in Khartoum. Click here for background on armed elements in Blue Nile as of December 2010.

Both Blue Nile and South Kordofan are heavily militarized. In 2008, the Small Arms Survey documented the militarization of the Nuba region (here in Arabic), including the arming of Arab tribes.

Updated 15 September 2011

Click below for information on the following:

• The Conflict in South Kordofan (15 September 2011)
• Armed Entities around South Kordofan (4 June 2011)
• Militarization in and around Abyei (2 June 2011)
• Armed Entities around Abyei (December 2010)
• Abyei and nearby Oil Filds (map, 2010)
• Arms Flows to North and South Kordofan (October 2010)
• The Buildup of Forces and Arms in Blue Nile (December 2010)

Note on sourcing: This site makes use of military documents whose authenticity has been confirmed by a source close to the Joint Defence Board (JDB). The JDB is under the presidency and composed of the chiefs of staff of SAF and the SPLA, their deputies, and a number of senior officers.

Relevant Tables, Maps, and Summaries

• Approximate areas of SPLM-North control in South Kordofan, October 2011
  Highlighting SPLM-North areas of control and supply routes.
• Potential Flashpoints, South Sudan and Three Areas, April 2009 (UNMIS)
  Map highlighting critical areas of potential inter-communal conflict
• Abyei and nearby oil fields (map)
• Armed Elements in the Nuba Mountains Area, August 2008 (from HSBA Issue Brief 12)
  Table listing armed groups of concern in the Nuba Mountains region
• Nuba Mountains Map (from HSBA Issue Brief 12)
  Map showing the Nuba Mountains of South Kordofan and environs
• Selected Armed Groups of Concern in South Sudan and Border Areas, March 2008 (from HSBA Issue Brief 11)
  Map showing armed group locations and alignments, including in South Kordofan and Abyei
• Selected Armed Groups Operating in South Sudan/South Kordofan, May 2008 (from HSBA Issue Brief 11)
  Table showing armed groups in South Sudan and South Kordofan as of May 2008
• Misseriya Militia Strengths and Redeployment from Abyei, May 2008 (from HSBA Issue Brief 11)
  Table showing redeployment of Debab and Abu Matrig Forces from Abyei

Relevant HSBA Publications

• The Drift Back to War: Insecurity and Militarization in the Nuba Mountains, HSBA Issue Brief 12, August 2008 (in Arabic)
• Allies and Defectors: An Update on Armed Group Integration and Proxy Force Activity, HSBA Issue Brief 11, May 2008 (in Arabic)